The most recent predictions from the World Bank show that the Russian economy is likely to contract by 8% in 2009 and unemployment could rise to 13% by the end of the year. As a result of the present economic down turn, the Russian Middle Class will contract from 55.6% to 51.2% (a decline of 6.2 million). Nevertheless there are also some positive aspects to the economic situation: the banking system has been stabilized, as well as the decline in value of the Russian Rouble which lost 30% of its value earlier this year but has since then already recovered 12%.
However, more importantly for Russia's resource based economy, the price of oil has picked up to over 60$ a barrel which has also been reflected in investors confidence in the Russian stock exchange, which has also regained some of its previous lost value. Inflation has gone down and is expected to stabilize at around 7%. Moreover, Russian has much less toxic assets than other countries like the USA and the UK, and the ratio of GDP / Debt ratio is much more manageable. A very moderate of growth is predicted during the 2nd half of the year, but the Russian economy will not fully recover until the global economy starts to look better and that is not expected until 2012.